In the third quarter of 2019, the national average operating price range for live pigs was $30 per kilo, according to data from zhuochuang information. Prices fell somewhat in the fourth quarter, but the lowest price did not fall below $30 per kilo.
The data disclosed by listed companies should be more intuitive. According to 21st Century economic report reporter's calculation, the average price of pig sales of herd shares in the third quarter of 2019 was yuan\/kg, and the fourth quarter was significantly increased to yuan\/kg.
In the fourth quarter in the context of steady growth in sales in the month, Muyuan shares in the fourth quarter profit whether year-on-year, or month-on-month will show a very significant increase. The 2019 net profit range is between $100 million and $14.3 billion, with a median of $100 million, according to earnings forecasts released by Wynne.
In other words, Wynne's single-quarter net profit for the fourth quarter of 2019 could reach $100 million, up 170 percent from the third quarter. Because the company still has a large portion of its revenue from broiler chickens, and its business is less concentrated, other head pig companies will see higher fourth-quarter profit growth.
The 2019 pig price high, which appeared in early November, was followed by a two-month run-down after the nation's average hog output rose below $40 per kilo.
“In November and December last year, the range of changes in supply and demand relations was limited, with a more pronounced decline in demand-side." Zhu Chuang information pig industry analyst Lily Zhang said on January 9, the main reason for the decline in demand is that the price of pigs in October is too high, which has a more obvious inhibitory effect on end consumption, and then led to the price fall.
However, the overall decline is relatively limited compared with the average sales price at its peak in October. According to zhuochuang data, the fourth quarter pig column average price lows remained around 33 yuan\/kg.
Take New Hope as an example, the average price of pig sales in November and December 2019 is yuan \/ kg, yuan \/ kg, and the average price of Muyuan shares in the same period is yuan and yuan, which is significantly higher than the average price of sales in the third quarter.
According to statistics, in the third quarter of 2019, Muyuan shares sold ten thousand live pigs per month, and by the fourth quarter, the number had increased to ten thousand. New hope for the fourth quarter of pig sales trends, and Muyuan shares in line.
The column average price, the column quantity enhances brings the dual growth impetus, also has one not to be ignored detail. The new hope that the relevant personage 9 points out,\" in december the company pig out of the column weight compared with the previous certain improvement.\"
This involves a matter of cost and profit margins. The 21st century economic report learned that the cost of domestic pig breeding, including the cost of epidemic prevention and environmental protection, is around 15 yuan per kilogram. After the end of the cost lock,20 yuan and 30 yuan out of the column average price, the profit of aquaculture enterprises pull effect, cannot be the same.
Win's shares are typical. According to earnings forecasts, the company's median net profit in the fourth quarter of 2019 reached $100 million, significantly higher than the combined profit of $100 million in the first three quarters of the same year.
And in terms of performance flexibility, pig companies such as herding stock account for more than 95% of the revenue of the business, the fourth quarter profit growth may be higher than the stock with broiler business, and feed income account for a relatively high new hope.
“In my relatively cautious approach to supply in the first half of 2020, it is not expected to increase significantly." A domestic head of listed aquaculture companies said on january 9.
This is similar to mr. zhang's prediction that \"the northern region has been giving birth again since march 2019, and is expected to be around four months a year to a year and a half based on the growth, pregnancy and commodity pig cycle of the binary reserve sows, so the time point for a significant increase is july to august this year.\"
A survey from a domestic commodity research institute in Guangdong at the end of December showed that the local pig self-sufficiency rate was% before the 2019 outbreak, and it had slipped to about% in December 2019. This will require outside provincial research to fill the local consumer gap.
The former is due to the lower profit base of head companies such as Muyuan shares in the same period in 2019, and the industry didn't start to step into profitability until June. The latter is due to the high price of pigs in the fourth quarter of 2019, resulting in the current period of listed companies single-quarter profit base is too high.
The first is the profit trend of aquaculture enterprises, under the premise of the same basic data, such as the stock volume, the high point of the pig cycle has been established in early November last year, the future with the increase in reproduction, pig prices will only go downhill.
followed by stock price and valuation factors. Although pork stocks have fallen in the last two months, since the beginning of 2019, Muyuan shares, new hope cumulative increase of% and%.
Even at a single-quarter profit of $100 million in the fourth quarter, Muyuan shares earned $per share in 2019. At its closing price on january 9th, it's a double valuation.
For now, the ability to support high pork stocks is likely to leave only the first half of 2020 with a slower fall in pig prices in the second half of the year, leading to a rise in total profits for listed companies this year.
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