卓创资讯提供的数据显示,2019年三季度,全国生猪出栏均价运行区间在每公斤元至30元,四季度价格虽然有所回落,但是最低价也未跌破30元/公斤。

In the third quarter of 2019, the national average operating price range for live pigs was $30 per kilo, according to data from zhuochuang information. Prices fell somewhat in the fourth quarter, but the lowest price did not fall below $30 per kilo.

  上市公司披露的数据要更为直观。21世纪经济报道记者测算结果显示,2019年三季度牧原股份生猪销售均价为元/公斤,四季度大幅提升至元/公斤。

The data disclosed by listed companies should be more intuitive. According to 21st Century economic report reporter's calculation, the average price of pig sales of herd shares in the third quarter of 2019 was yuan\/kg, and the fourth quarter was significantly increased to yuan\/kg.

  在四季度单月销量稳步增长的背景下,牧原股份四季度利润无论是同比,还是环比将出现非常明显的增长。温氏股份发布的业绩预告显示,2019年净利润区间在亿元至143亿元,中位数为亿元。

In the fourth quarter in the context of steady growth in sales in the month, Muyuan shares in the fourth quarter profit whether year-on-year, or month-on-month will show a very significant increase. The 2019 net profit range is between $100 million and $14.3 billion, with a median of $100 million, according to earnings forecasts released by Wynne.

  换言之,温氏股份2019年四季度单季净利润可达亿元,较三季度环比增加170%。由于公司还有很大一部分收入来自肉鸡,业务集中度不强,所以其他头部猪企四季度利润增幅还会更高一些。

In other words, Wynne's single-quarter net profit for the fourth quarter of 2019 could reach $100 million, up 170 percent from the third quarter. Because the company still has a large portion of its revenue from broiler chickens, and its business is less concentrated, other head pig companies will see higher fourth-quarter profit growth.

  2019年的猪价高点,出现在11月初,彼时全国生猪出栏均价一度涨破了40元/公斤,随后展开了连续两个月的回落。

The 2019 pig price high, which appeared in early November, was followed by a two-month run-down after the nation's average hog output rose below $40 per kilo.

  “去年11月、12月,供求关系变化幅度有限,其中需求端下降较为明显。”卓创资讯生猪行业分析师张莉莉1月9日介绍称,造成需求下降的主要原因是10月份生猪价格过高,对终端消费产生了较为明显的抑制作用,进而带动价格回落。

“In November and December last year, the range of changes in supply and demand relations was limited, with a more pronounced decline in demand-side." Zhu Chuang information pig industry analyst Lily Zhang said on January 9, the main reason for the decline in demand is that the price of pigs in October is too high, which has a more obvious inhibitory effect on end consumption, and then led to the price fall.

  可是,对比同年10月高点的销售均价可以看出,整体下滑幅度相对有限。卓创数据显示,四季度生猪出栏均价的低点仍然维持在33元/公斤附近。

However, the overall decline is relatively limited compared with the average sales price at its peak in October. According to zhuochuang data, the fourth quarter pig column average price lows remained around 33 yuan\/kg.

  以新希望为例,2019年11月、12月生猪销售均价为元/公斤、元/公斤,牧原股份同期销售均价则为元和元,这一价格明显高于三季度销售均价。

Take New Hope as an example, the average price of pig sales in November and December 2019 is yuan \/ kg, yuan \/ kg, and the average price of Muyuan shares in the same period is yuan and yuan, which is significantly higher than the average price of sales in the third quarter.

  据统计,2019年三季度,牧原股份月均销售生猪万头,到四季度时,这一数字增加至万头。新希望的四季度生猪销量变化趋势,与牧原股份保持了一致。

According to statistics, in the third quarter of 2019, Muyuan shares sold ten thousand live pigs per month, and by the fourth quarter, the number had increased to ten thousand. New hope for the fourth quarter of pig sales trends, and Muyuan shares in line.

  出栏均价、出栏量提升带来双重增长动力的同时,还有一个不容忽视的细节。对此新希望相关人士9日便指出,“12月公司生猪出栏体重较此前确有一定提升。”

The column average price, the column quantity enhances brings the dual growth impetus, also has one not to be ignored detail. The new hope that the relevant personage 9 points out,\" in december the company pig out of the column weight compared with the previous certain improvement.\"

  这其中涉及一个成本和利润空间的问题。21世纪经济报道了解到,加上防疫、环保成本在内,国内生猪养殖成本在15元/公斤附近。成本端锁定后,20元和30元的出栏均价,对养殖企业利润的拉动效果,不可同日而语。

This involves a matter of cost and profit margins. The 21st century economic report learned that the cost of domestic pig breeding, including the cost of epidemic prevention and environmental protection, is around 15 yuan per kilogram. After the end of the cost lock,20 yuan and 30 yuan out of the column average price, the profit of aquaculture enterprises pull effect, cannot be the same.

  温氏股份便是典型。按照业绩预告,公司2019年四季度净利润中位数达到亿元,明显高于同年前三季度利润总和的亿元。

Win's shares are typical. According to earnings forecasts, the company's median net profit in the fourth quarter of 2019 reached $100 million, significantly higher than the combined profit of $100 million in the first three quarters of the same year.

  而从业绩弹性上看,牧原股份这类生猪业务收入占比超过95%的养殖企业,四季度盈利增幅可能会高于具备肉鸡业务的温氏股份,以及饲料收入占比较高的新希望。

And in terms of performance flexibility, pig companies such as herding stock account for more than 95% of the revenue of the business, the fourth quarter profit growth may be higher than the stock with broiler business, and feed income account for a relatively high new hope.

  “2020年上半年的供应,我持有相对谨慎的态度,预计难以出现明显增加。”国内一家头部上市养殖企业人士1月9日表示。

“In my relatively cautious approach to supply in the first half of 2020, it is not expected to increase significantly." A domestic head of listed aquaculture companies said on january 9.

  这与张莉莉所预判的结果相类似,“北方地区是从2019年3月份开始复产,按照二元后备母猪的长成、怀孕和商品猪的出栏周期计算,预计在一年四个月到一年半左右,所以出栏出现较为明显提升的时间点是今年的7月至8月。”

This is similar to mr. zhang's prediction that \"the northern region has been giving birth again since march 2019, and is expected to be around four months a year to a year and a half based on the growth, pregnancy and commodity pig cycle of the binary reserve sows, so the time point for a significant increase is july to august this year.\"

  来自国内某大宗商品研究机构12月底在广东的调研结果显示,2019年疫情发生前,当地生猪自给率为%,2019年12月已经下滑至%左右。这便需要外部省份调研,来填补当地消费缺口。

A survey from a domestic commodity research institute in Guangdong at the end of December showed that the local pig self-sufficiency rate was% before the 2019 outbreak, and it had slipped to about% in December 2019. This will require outside provincial research to fill the local consumer gap.

  前者是因为2019年同期,牧原股份等头部公司较低的利润基数,全行业直至6月才开始逐步进入盈利状态。后者是因为2019年四季度猪价过高,导致当期各家上市公司单季利润基数太高。

The former is due to the lower profit base of head companies such as Muyuan shares in the same period in 2019, and the industry didn't start to step into profitability until June. The latter is due to the high price of pigs in the fourth quarter of 2019, resulting in the current period of listed companies single-quarter profit base is too high.

  首先是养殖企业的盈利趋势,在存栏量等基础数据不变的前提下,本轮猪周期的高点已于去年11月初确立,未来伴随复产力度的增加,猪价只会走下坡路。

The first is the profit trend of aquaculture enterprises, under the premise of the same basic data, such as the stock volume, the high point of the pig cycle has been established in early November last year, the future with the increase in reproduction, pig prices will only go downhill.

  其次是股价和估值因素。虽然近两月猪肉股已经有所回落,但是从2019年初至今,牧原股份、新希望累计涨幅仍然达到%和%。

followed by stock price and valuation factors. Although pork stocks have fallen in the last two months, since the beginning of 2019, Muyuan shares, new hope cumulative increase of% and%.

  即便按照四季度单季利润为亿元计算,牧原股份2019年每股收益为元。按照1月9日的收盘价折算,相当于倍的估值。

Even at a single-quarter profit of $100 million in the fourth quarter, Muyuan shares earned $per share in 2019. At its closing price on january 9th, it's a double valuation.

  目前,能够支撑猪肉股维持高位的高点,可能只剩下2020年上半年猪价维持高位、下半年价格回落的速度慢一点,从而带动各家上市公司今年利润总额能够实现增长了。

For now, the ability to support high pork stocks is likely to leave only the first half of 2020 with a slower fall in pig prices in the second half of the year, leading to a rise in total profits for listed companies this year.

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